Green growth prediction of Ho Chi Minh city by the grey theory model

The green growth prediction plays an important role to assess and monitor the growth rate of a local region. Managers and researchers can make timely adaptation policy to improve and innovate economic, cultural and environmental performance to impulse the green growth. The study used the methods such as the multiple criteria analysis, analytic hierarchy process, principal component analysis, and the grey theory model to build and integrate green growth indicators into the green growth index.
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Green growth prediction of Ho Chi Minh city by the grey theory modelVietnam Journal of Science and Technology 55 (4C) (2017) 20-26GREEN GROWTH PREDICTION OF HO CHI MINH CITY BYTHE GREY THEORY MODELNguyen Hien Than*, Doan Ngoc Nhu TamFaculty of Resources and Environment, Thu Dau Mot University, 06 Tran Van On,Phu Hoa, Thu Dau Mot City, Binh Duong*Email: thannh@tdmu.edu.vnReceived: 30 June 2017; Accepted for publication: 18 October 2017ABSTRACTThe green growth prediction plays an important role to assess and monitor the growth rateof a local region. Managers and researchers can make timely adaptation policy to improve andinnovate economic, cultural and environmental performance to impulse the green growth. Thestudy used the methods such as the multiple criteria analysis, analytic hierarchy process,principal component analysis, and the grey theory model to build and integrate green growthindicators into the green growth index. The green growth index was developed by 9 subjects and18 indicators. The data of study were collected a period of seven years from 2009 to 2015. Theresults of study indicated that almost districts increased the green growth index. District 1 andDistrict 5 reached at high green growth level about 60 score, while others were classified intoaverage green growth level. The results of green growth prediction of districts in Ho ChiMinh City also showed that the green growth index will lightly increase from 2016 – 2020.Keywords: green growth, water quality, Ho Chi Minh, grey theory, GM model.1. INTRODUCTIONGreen growth emerged as a paradigm for development in few years ago [1]. According toUNEP, a green economy was defined as one that “results in improved human well-being andsocial equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities” [2]. In2011, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported onindicators for green growth, which is a key component of the overall OECD green growthstrategy. These indicators are selected based on criteria: relevance, generality,comprehensibility, data quality and reliability. Evaluation indicators fall into four issues:environmental performance, natural resources, environmental quality and economic opportunity[3].The function of the green growth combines the relationship between the economic growthand the environmental protection. The green growth is often studied at the national level such asAsia Pacific [4]; The Netherlands [5]; Korea [6]. Measuring green growth for local is a fewresearch mentioned.In 2012, the Prime Minister proclaimed Decision No. 1393/QD-TTg on “The NationalGreen Growth Strategy” for the period 2011-2020 with a vision to 2050 [7]. After, manyGreen growth prediction of Ho Chi Minh city by the grey theory modellocalities have made decisions and plans to implement the green growth strategy such as PlanNo. 94/KH-UBND of Hanoi Peoples Committee, Planning No. 22/KH-UBND of Can ThoPeoples Committee, Decision No. 481/QD-UBND of Bac Can, and Lai Chau, etc. At current,Vietnam has still not built green growth indicators for local level. Current research on the greengrowth is limited to qualitative approaches and methodologies instead of focus on developing ageneral green growth strategy. Therefore, building green growth index is one of the necessaryissues. This study will develop green growth indicators and propose a scheme for assessing andmonitoring the green growth index for local level, a case study 13 inner districts in Ho Chi MinhCity. Simultaneously, forecasting green growth also is mentioned to support rapid estimation ofthe green growth index.2. MATERIAL AND METHODS2.1. Multi-criteria methodSelectionStep 1: Selecting green growth indicatorsThe indicators were selected based onthe experience of international studies andconsideredsuitabilitytoHCMCsconditions relied on 7 criteria: suitabletarget (C1), available data (C2), accuracy(C3), reliability (C4), comprehensibility(C5), sensitivity (C6) and specificity (C7).After proposed preliminary indicators, theauthor reviewed experts who haveprofessional knowledge in this field to givea mark for each indicator from 1 to 5. Theweight of criteria was determined based ontheir importance level. The weightingcriteria for the green growth indicators wasGroupingJudgingWeightingNormalizingCalculatingCombiningGreen growth indicatorsSocio-economyEnvironmentIndicators ofpositiveIndicators ofnegativeWeight of indicatorsNormalize indicators of green growthSocio-economyEnvironmentGreen growth indexdetermined by AHP. The weighting results Figure 1. Scheme for calculating green growth index.of each criterion was obtained (C1, C2, C3,C4, C5, C6) = (0.32, 0.15, 0.05, 012, 0.05, 0.13, 0.15). Then, the author conducted a consistencytest of the weights to be obtained of max = 7.301, consistency index (CI) = 0.05, ...