Risk Assessment and Risk Management, II

Modeling Risks: “All models are wrong; some models are useful.” George BoxRisk Assessment and Risk Management, IIPrinciples of Environmental Toxicology Instructor: Gregory Möller, Ph.D. University of Idaho. Why Model Risks?• Generally, modeling is performed to:– Better understand a system. – Make predictions.
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Risk Assessment and Risk Management, II Principles of Environmental Toxicology Modeling Risks • “All models are wrong; some models are useful.” George Box Risk Assessment and Risk Management, II Principles of Environmental Toxicology Instructor: Gregory Möller, Ph.D. University of Idaho 2 Principles of Environmental Toxicology Principles of Environmental Toxicology Why Model Risks? Point-Deterministic Approach CR EF• Generally, modeling is performed to: Contact Rate Exposure (EF*ET - hr/yr) – Better understand a system. – Make predictions. ED 2.39 298.68 594.98 891.27 1,187.57 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CC• Specifically, risk modeling is often necessary Exposure Duration (years) Concentration because: 0.00 11.75 23.50 35.25 47.00 29.26 30.69 32.11 33.54 34.96 – Acceptable risk levels are TF BW not measurable. Body Weight (kg) Toxicity Factor (mg/kg d) ...